Journal Article


Andrew Parnell
Caitlin E. Buck
Tamsin Edwards
Michael Salter-Townshend
James Sweeney



climate change research agenda policy makers climate changes simple regression statistical statistical modeling statistical methods

Statistical challenges in estimating past climate changes (2018)

Abstract We review the statistical methods currently in use to estimate past changes in climate. These methods encompass the full gamut of statistical modeling approaches, ranging from simple regression up to nonparametric spatiotemporal Bayesian models. Often the full inferential challenge is broken down into many submodels each of which may involve multiple stochastic components, and occasionally mechanistic or process-based models too. We argue that many of the traditional approaches are simplistic in their structure, handling, and presentation of uncertainty, and that newer models (which incorporate mechanistic aspects alongside statistical models) provide an exciting research agenda for the next decade. We hope that policy-makers and those charged with predicting future climate change will increasingly use probabilistic paleoclimate reconstructions to calibrate their forecasts, learn about key natural climatological parameters, and make appropriate decisions concerning future climate change. Remarkably few statisticians have involved themselves with paleoclimate reconstruction, and we hope that this article inspires more to take up the challenge.
Collections Ireland -> Maynooth University -> Type = Article
Ireland -> Maynooth University -> Academic Unit = Faculty of Science and Engineering: Research Institutes: Hamilton Institute
Ireland -> Maynooth University -> Status = Published
Ireland -> Maynooth University -> Academic Unit = Faculty of Science and Engineering: Mathematics and Statistics

Full list of authors on original publication

Andrew Parnell, Caitlin E. Buck, Tamsin Edwards, Michael Salter-Townshend, James Sweeney

Experts in our system

Andrew Parnell
Maynooth University
Total Publications: 45
Michael Salter-Townshend
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 12