Conference Proceedings


E. J. O'Brien
Colin C. Caprani



load distribution bridge loading predictive likelihood bridge loads traffic load effect civil engineering gross vehicle weight statistical methods statistical analysis bridge civil and environmental engineering

Finding the Distribution of Bridge Lifetime Load Effect by Predictive Likelihood (2006)

Abstract To assess the safety of an existing bridge, the loads to which it may be subject in its lifetime are required. Statistical analysis is used to extrapolate a sample of load effect values from the simulation period to the required design period. Complex statistical methods are often used and the end result is usually a single value of characteristic load effect. Such a deterministic result is at odds with the underlying stochastic nature of the problem. In this paper, predictive likelihood is shown to be a method by which the distribution of the lifetime extreme load effect may be determined. A basic application to the prediction of lifetime Gross vehicle Weight (GVW) is given. Results are also presented for some cases of bridge loading, compared to a return period approach and important differences are identified. The implications for the assessment of existing bridges are discussed.
Collections Ireland -> Dublin Institute of Technology -> College of Engineering and Built Environment
Ireland -> Dublin Institute of Technology -> Conference papers
Ireland -> Dublin Institute of Technology -> Colleges
Ireland -> Dublin Institute of Technology -> School of Civil and Structural Engineering
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Civil Engineering Research Collection
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Engineering & Architecture
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Civil Engineering

Full list of authors on original publication

E. J. O'Brien, Colin C. Caprani

Experts in our system

Eugene J. O'Brien
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 192
Colin C. Caprani
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 42