Working Paper


Karl Whelan
Antonello D'Agostino



the federal reserve system short inflation finance output board horizon governors economic forecasting

Federal Reserve Information during the great moderation (2007)

Abstract Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of “naive” benchmark models, droppedremarkably during this period.
Collections Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Economics
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Social Sciences and Law

Full list of authors on original publication

Karl Whelan, Antonello D'Agostino

Experts in our system

Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 70