Working Paper


Morgan Kelly



irish industry construction industry ireland falls housing prices building irish size house prices

On the likely extent of falls in Irish house prices (2007)

Abstract Looking at house price cycles across the OECD since 1970, we find astrong relationship between the size of the initial rise in price and its subsequentfall. Were this relationship to hold for Ireland, it would predict falls ofreal house prices of 40 to 60 per cent over a period of 8 to 9 years. Houseprice falls tend not to have serious macroeconomic consequences, but theunusually large size of the Irish house building industry suggest that any significanthouse price fall that does occur could impose a difficult adjustment on the economy.
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Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Economics
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Social Sciences and Law

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Morgan Kelly

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Morgan Kelly
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 37