Type

Report

Authors

Jeremy Rudd
Karl Whelan

Subjects

Economics

Topics
labour share monetary policy phillips curve potential output labor market united states interest rates output gap inflation finance united states

Does the labour share of income drive inflation? (2002)

Abstract Woodford (2001) has presented evidence that the new-Keynesian Phillips curve fits the empirical behavior of inflation well when the labor income share is used as a driving variable, but fits poorly when deterministically detrended output is used. He concludes that the output gap - the deviation between actual and potential output - is better captured by the labor income share, in turn implying that central banks should raise interest rates in response to increases in the labor share. We show that the empirical evidence generally suggests that the labor share version of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve is a very poor model of price inflation. We conclude that there is little reason to view the labor income share as a good measure of the output gap, or as an appropriate variable for incorporation in a monetary policy rule.
Collections Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Economics
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Social Sciences and Law
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Economics Research Collection

Full list of authors on original publication

Jeremy Rudd, Karl Whelan

Experts in our system

1
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 70