Type

Report

Authors

Antonello D'Agostino
Karl Whelan

Subjects

Economics

Topics
governors the federal reserve system short inflation finance output board horizon economic forecasting

Federal Reserve information during the great moderation (2007)

Abstract Using data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commerical forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of "naive" benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period.
Collections Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Economics
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Social Sciences and Law
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Economics Research Collection

Full list of authors on original publication

Antonello D'Agostino, Karl Whelan

Experts in our system

1
Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 70