Working Paper


Karl Whelan
Kieran McQuinn
Antonello D'Agostino



individual bootstrap forecasting c53 e37 bootstrap statistics economic forecasting evaluation e27

Are some forecasters really better than others? (2010)

Abstract In any dataset with individual forecasts of economic variables, some forecasters will performbetter than others. However, it is possible that these ex post differences reflect sampling variationand thus overstate the ex ante differences between forecasters. In this paper, we present asimple test of the null hypothesis that all forecasters in the US Survey of Professional Forecastershave equal ability. We construct a test statistic that reflects both the relative and absoluteperformance of the forecaster and use bootstrap techniques to compare the empirical resultswith the equivalents obtained under the null hypothesis of equal forecaster ability. Results suggestslimited evidence for the idea that the best forecasters are actually innately better thanothers, though there is evidence that a relatively small group of forecasters perform very poorly.
Collections Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Economics
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Social Sciences and Law

Full list of authors on original publication

Karl Whelan, Kieran McQuinn, Antonello D'Agostino

Experts in our system

Karl Whelan
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 70
Kieran McQuinn
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 5