Type

Working Paper

Authors

Cormac Ó Gráda
Morgan Kelly

Subjects

Environment

Topics
economic impact nineteenth century crops and climate europe history time constant little ice age europe climate history crops and climate economic aspects europe global warming

The economic impact of the little ice age (2010)

Abstract We investigate by how much the Little Ice Age reduced the harvests on which pre-industrial Europeans relied for survival. We find that weather strongly affected crop yields, but can find little evidence that western Europe experienced long swings or structural breaks in climate. Instead, annual summer temperature reconstructions between the fourteenth and twentieth centuries behave as almost independent draws from a distribution with a constant mean but time varying volatility; while winter temperatures behave similarly until the late nineteenth century when they rise markedly, consistent with anthropogenic global warming. Our results suggest that the existing consensus about a Little Ice Age in western Europe stems from a Slutsky effect, where the standard climatological practice of smoothing data prior to analysis induces spurious cyclicality in uncorrelated data.
Collections Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Economics Working Papers & Policy Papers
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Economics
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Social Sciences and Law

Full list of authors on original publication

Cormac Ó Gráda, Morgan Kelly

Experts in our system

1
Cormac Ó Gráda
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 179
 
2
Morgan Kelly
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 29