Journal Article


Eugene J. O'Brien
Niall K. Harris
Simon P. Wilson



weigh in motion statistical spatial repeatability impact factor bayesian statistical decision theory bayesian wim pavement live loads statistical methods spatial analysis statistics

The use of Bayesian Statistics to predict patterns of spatial repeatability (2006)

Abstract Statistical spatial repeatability (SSR) is an extension to the well known concept of spatial repeatability. SSR states that the mean of many patterns of dynamic tyre force applied to a pavement surface is similar for a fleet of trucks of a given type. A model which can accurately predict patterns of SSR could subsequently be used in whole-life pavement deterioration models as a means of describing pavement loading due to a fleet of vehicles. This paper presents a method for predicting patterns of SSR, through the use of a truck fleet model inferred from measurements of dynamic tyre forces. A Bayesian statistical inference algorithm is used to determine the distributions of multiple parameters of a fleet of quarter-car heavy vehicle ride models, based on prior assumed distributions and the set of observed dynamic tyre force from a ‘true’ fleet of 100 simulated models. Simulated forces are noted at 16 equidistant pavement locations, similar to data from a multiple sensor weigh-in-motion site. It is shown that the fitted model provides excellent agreement in the mean pattern of dynamic force with the originally generated truck fleet. It is shown that good predictions are possible for patterns of SSR on a given section of road for a fleet of similar vehicles. The sensitivity of the model to errors in parameter estimation is discussed, as is the potential for implementation of the method.
Collections Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Critical Infrastructure Group Research Collection
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Interdisciplinary Centres & Research Groups
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Civil Engineering Research Collection
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> College of Engineering & Architecture
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Critical Infrastructure Group
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> School of Civil Engineering

Full list of authors on original publication

Eugene J. O'Brien, Niall K. Harris, Simon P. Wilson

Experts in our system

Eugene J. O'Brien
University College Dublin
Total Publications: 192
Simon P. Wilson
Dublin Institute of Technology
Total Publications: 7