Journal Article


Mario A Fares
Damien C Tully



animals monte carlo method history 20th century history 21st century genetics markov chains history 18th century history classification foot and mouth disease disease outbreaks molecular epidemiology veterinary foot and mouth disease virus epidemiology virology models genetic evolution molecular time factors phylogeny bayes theorem serotyping genetic variation history 17th century

The tale of a modern animal plague: tracing the evolutionary history and determining the time-scale for foot and mouth disease virus. (2008)

Abstract Despite significant advances made in the understanding of its epidemiology, foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) is among the most unexpected agricultural devastating plagues. While the disease manifests itself as seven immunologically distinct strains their origin, population dynamics, migration patterns and divergence times remain unknown. Herein we have assembled a comprehensive data set of gene sequences representing the global diversity of the disease and inferred the time-scale and evolutionary history for FMDV. Serotype-specific rates of evolution and divergence times were estimated using a Bayesian coalescent framework. We report that an ancient precursor FMDV gave rise to two major diversification events spanning a relatively short interval of time. This radiation event is estimated to have taken place towards the end of the 17th and the beginning of the 18th century giving us the present circulating Euro-Asiatic and South African viral strains. Furthermore our results hint that Europe acted as a possible hub for the disease from where it successfully dispersed elsewhere via exploration and trading routes.
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Full list of authors on original publication

Mario A Fares, Damien C Tully

Experts in our system

Mario Ali Fares
Trinity College Dublin
Total Publications: 43