Journal Article


Andrew C. Parnell
Stefan Rahmstorf
Niamh Cahill



global temperature hiatus records variability change points statistical global warming

Change points of global temperature (2015)

Abstract We aim to address the question of whether or not there is a significant recent 'hiatus', 'pause' or 'slowdown' of global temperature rise. Using a statistical technique known as change point (CP) analysis we identify the changes in four global temperature records and estimate the rates of temperature rise before and after these changes occur. For each record the results indicate that three CPs are enough to accurately capture the variability in the data with no evidence of any detectable change in the global warming trend sinceāˆ¼1970. We conclude that the term 'hiatus' or 'pause' cannot be statistically justified.
Collections Ireland -> University College Dublin -> CASL Research Collection
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Earth Institute Research Collection
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Complex and Adaptive Systems Laboratory
Ireland -> University College Dublin -> Mathematics and Statistics Research Collection

Full list of authors on original publication

Andrew C. Parnell, Stefan Rahmstorf, Niamh Cahill

Experts in our system

Andrew Parnell
Maynooth University
Total Publications: 45
Stefan Rahmstorf
Maynooth University
Total Publications: 3
Niamh Cahill
Maynooth University
Total Publications: 16